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By: Jamie Penick, MMATorch Editor-in-Chief
The UFC returns to Chicago on Saturday night, bringing a Fox event to the United Center for the second straight year. Saturday's card is headlined by a Flyweight Championship bout, but fan interest seems to be focused more on the lightweight bout between Anthony Pettis and Donald Cerrone, as well as Rampage Jackson's expected final UFC bout. All four fights on the main card should provide plenty of action, and we'll start today's preview with the main event:
Demetrious "Mighty Mouse" Johnson vs. John Dodson (Flyweight Championship)
"Mighty Mouse" has taken what made him successful at bantamweight and improved upon it in the 125 lb. division. His wrestling game is explosive at times, and he's brought his striking game up a notch from where it was at even a year ago. He's a tough puzzle to figure out for his opponents, because he's hard to hit consistently, he's very durable, and he's nearly impossible to keep down for significant periods of time.
What he is not is a dynamic finisher. He doesn't have any discernible power, and though he's won a number of fights by submission, those wins haven't come against top end competition.
Contrast that with Dodson, who absolutely has stopping power in the flyweight division, as he's shown in two of his three fights in the UFC. He's just as fast, if not faster, than Johnson, and he's got decent enough abilities in the grappling department. Now, five rounds is a lot of time for him to try connecting on a knockout strike, but Johnson has taken some fairly decent shots at times in his career, and he's continued fighting on. His wrestling and grappling game is more suited for this five round fight than is Dodson, and if he can avoid getting hit with a major shot, this is his fight to win. I just can't see Dodson scoring a finish on Saturday, and I think Johnson will make his first successful title defense.
PREDICTION: Johnson via unanimous decision
Quinton "Rampage" Jackson vs. Glover Teixeira (Light Heavyweight)
Jackson fights for what he says will be the last time in the UFC, taking on a fast-rising contender in Brazil's Glover Teixeira. Many believe this to be set up as a star making opportunity for Teixeira, who destroyed Kyle Kingsbury in his debut and demolished Fabio Maldonado en route to a doctor's stoppage in his second UFC bout.
Teixeira's a violent, heavy handed striker, but he's not the technical marvel his most ardent supporters would like to suggest. He leaves himself open to counters and often telegraphs his strikes, which could be an issue against a counter-striker like Rampage.
That said, we haven't seen much from Rampage over the last several years of his UFC career, and he hasn't stopped a fight since knocking out Wanderlei Silva at the end of 2008. It's impossible to suggest he'll show up at his best given his history, a lengthy layoff after knee surgery, and the fact that he's simply ready to be done with the UFC.
More than likely, Teixeira will look to take Jackson down if he can't put him there with his striking on the feet. From there, the ground and pound comes into play, and that's where Jackson could be in a lot of trouble. I don't know that Teixeira stops Rampage, because it hasn't happened in some time from strikes, but I think it's entirely possible, and I'll lean towards a finish on the ground in the second.
PREDICTION: Teixeira via TKO in the second round
Anthony Pettis vs. Donald Cerrone (Lightweight)
This could very well be the best fight of the night, with two fantastically entertaining lightweights squaring off for a chance to move that much closer to title contention. Pettis spent the majority of 2012 recovering from shoulder surgery after a beautiful head kick KO over Joe Lauzon in February, while Cerrone bounced back from a loss to Nate Diaz to take out Jeremy Stephens and Melvin Guillard in succession.
Both fighters possess effective and exciting striking games, Pettis' being the more unique of the two, while Cerrone might have more of an effective track record. They're also considerably skilled on the ground, with 19 submission wins between the two of them.
There's certainly concern on Pettis' part that the layoff could have a negative effect on him, and it certainly halted his momentum after the Lauzon fight, but he's gotten himself fully healthy and feels he's added new weapons to his arsenal as well. Cerrone's been impressive for much of his UFC run, but he's always hit a ceiling in major fights, and despite the considerable skills he brings to the cage, Pettis is just a bit better in every aspect of the game.
Pettis has an edge in the striking game, and I'd give him an edge on the ground if it gets there as well. This is his chance to move close to a title fight, if not wait one out, and I think he gets it done in an exciting return to action.
PREDICTION: Pettis via TKO in the second round
Erik Koch vs. Ricardo Lamas (Featherweight)
Another Roufusport fighter coming off a lengthy layoff returns with a drive to get back into title contention, as Erik Koch looks to move past Ricardo Lamas. Koch was scheduled to face Jose Aldo last year before injuries to both fighters ultimately opened the door for Frankie Edgar, and Koch fights for the first time since September of 2011.
Lamas has been very impressive in the UFC, winning all three of his fights in the Octagon and capping that run off by taking out Hatsu Hioki, who had been as highly ranked as #2 in the division before that matchup.
Koch won both of his fights in the UFC in 2011, moving his run to four straight with his WEC run included. His sole loss came by decision against current #2 Chad Mendes in the WEC, and he brings a diverse and multi-faceted attack into his return. Koch was a grappler first, but has shown off a knack for the striking game as well with consecutive KOs over Francisco Rivera and Raphael Assuncao.
Lamas has skills on the feet as well, though he's certainly a better grappler, and stylistically the two of them match up rather well. It could be a toss up, but I really like Koch's skill set and think he comes back with a vengeance after the layoff.
PREDICTION: Koch via KO in the second round
=====Preliminary Card Quick Picks=====
-T.J. Grant over Matt Wiman via decision
-Hatsu Hioki over Clay Guida via submission in the second round
-Ryan Bader over Vladimir Matyushenko via KO in the first round
-Mike Russow over Shawn Jordan via decision
-Pascal Krauss over Mike Stumpf via decision
-Rafael Natal over Sean Spencer via decision
-Simeon Thoresen over David Mitchell via submission in the first round
Source: http://www.mmatorch.com/artman2/publish/penickstake/article_15721.shtml
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